After a depressingly long period where all the major indicators showed that life for most people in South Africa was only getting tougher, some of the metrics now indicate some improvements. However, a sense of vulnerability remains as many of our systems need fundamental changes that will be difficult to implement.
It has recently started to seem that life might get a little easier for millions in SA.
First, and perhaps most importantly, there has been no load shedding for five months. This has led to a real change in sentiment (despite millions of people still living with load reduction).
Inflation is coming down, with prices increasing a little less wildly, leading the Reserve Bank to start an interest rate cutting cycle that should result in money becoming significantly cheaper over the next year.
Fuel prices are coming down too, which means that more people should have more money in their pockets.
Underneath all of this is the formation of the national coalition government, which has completely changed the attitude of many in the middle class. At the beginning of the year, many were worried that Julius Malema could be Deputy President. Instead, the ANC formed a government with the DA, the IFP and eight other parties.
This has prompted Fitch Ratings to suggest that the chances of political instability in SA have receded.
However, despite all these positive tidings, many of our systems are still vulnerable.
First, the fact that Koeberg is currently not generating any power shows that individual installations that are vital to our country can fail.
Read more: Both Koeberg units offline after unexpected shutdown and planned maintenance
It’s a reminder that the national power system is still at risk. One major failure could well lead to load shedding being reinstated.
The millions of people living in townships who are currently under load reduction should not be forgotten. They are a constant reminder that network systems have not been properly upgraded and cannot provide enough power.
And of course, the fact that millions of people receive electricity but do not pay for it also reveals how deep the problems with electricity provision and distribution are.
This could be the focus of major conflict.
Power price increases
Eskom has said it plans to impose more big power price increases. Many consumers have said they cannot afford to pay them and political parties (including the ANC and the DA) have said they should not be imposed.
However, Eskom needs the money.
Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said the current system was leading to power prices that were unaffordable and unsustainable and he would start a process to review them.
Any review of power prices will lead to a dangerous argument, one that has not fundamentally changed in 20 years. Millions of people will say they cannot afford to pay more, while Eskom will say it needs the money.
The only thing that has shifted is that well-off people are opting out of Eskom through solar installations, putting more pressure on those who remain in the system.
Then there are water problems, which have become almost traditional in Joburg at this time of year.
Several suburbs in the city have suffered without water for days — another reminder of how serious water problems are in so many places around South Africa.
The problems with water provision and load reduction are symptoms of the failure of systems that are supposed to be maintained by local governments. These failures will continue to have a huge impact on the daily lives of many people.
Unfortunately, the problems are likely to get far worse before they get better.
Even councils that have received money to address their problems have been unable to do so. One such council is Mogale City in Gauteng, which continues to pump raw sewage into residential areas and rivers, despite receiving money from the national Department of Water and Sanitation to attend to the issue.
This money has either not been spent, been misspent, or simply stolen.
Misleading census figures
Many councils are likely to find their financial situation is only going to get worse because of problems with the 2022 census, which has been accused of undercounting the populations of South Africa’s big cities.
The National Treasury has explained that its allocations to metros and councils are based on the number of people determined by the census to be living there. Because of the alleged undercounting, Joburg, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Mangaung and all the other metros except Cape Town and Buffalo City will get less money from the national government.
At the same time, as the data scientist Michael O’Donovan pointed out in BusinessLIVE last week, residents in these cities have been paying above-inflation increases for water, power and sanitation for the past decade or so. They simply cannot pay any more.
To add to the problems, the five-year wage deal agreed with municipal workers at the SA Local Government Association means that councils will be paying above-inflation increases for a long period.
Their only options would be to cut back on services or to fire workers, both of which would have dire consequences.
This problem requires strong political will to resolve — political will not just among a small group of MPs in the national government, but among large groups of people across South Africa.
To make this more complex, local government elections will be held in 2026. While the clock is ticking, there is still no certainty on how the parties in the national coalition will approach this.
Because it will be easier for parties to attack each other than to work constructively together, it seems unlikely at this point they will make meaningful progress in local governments.
This period may mark a turning point in the national debate, in that instead of conversations about national policies, the focus turns to problems in local government. However, that will not necessarily result in better services, with so many crucial vulnerabilities that are difficult to resolve.
